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Don't Believe The Hype
If you were to take a survey, right now, in all likelihood the participants would tell you they know what's going to happen at the 83rd Academy Awards. The King's Speech will win the Oscar for Best Picture, and Colin Firth and Natalie Portman the Best Actor and Actress statues. The odds reflect this; oddschecker.com puts the best price you can get for Colin Firth at 1/33. Essentially, they think you'd have to run the Oscars 33 times before he didn't win. For Nathalie Portman, it's 1/8; in comparison, Michelle Williams, nominated for her role in Blue Valentine, doesn't make it past 50/1. That's right, 50 - because everyone knows what's going to happen at the Oscars.
Except of course, they don't. What we hear in the Oscars build-up is just studio hot-air - they made these films specifically for the Oscar season, after all, so they're going to make sure they capitalise on it. It's no surprise that the master of Oscar hype, Harvey Weinstein, who pushed Pulp Fiction, the English Patient and most recently The Reader with Kate Winslet to Oscar glory, is Executive Producer of the King's Speech. He shouts loudest, across as many mediums as he can, and the bookmakers listen.
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